Public sample report

A clear positioning window, but scope is the biggest risk.

This is a public example of the kind of market-risk report SteamGameWorth produces. It uses a fictional idea and illustrative rows so you can inspect the judgment style before answering the questionnaire.

Fictional ideaA cozy farming roguelite where players build a village through deck-based battles.Illustrative example · not real Steam data

Reference score (illustrative)

64/100Cautiously optimistic

Promising if narrowed, risky if shipped as four full games in one.
Overall read

Comparable median revenue (illustrative): About $1.6M
Review benchmark band (illustrative): 1,200-8,000 reviews
Confidence: Low-to-medium

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Basis for the verdict

Why 64: three points for, two against.

For

The selling point is distinctive: card-driven village battles keep this from being another cozy farm.
The comparable layer earns: all four neighbors show six-figure-plus illustrative revenue ranges.
The genre pool still narrows: adding deckbuilding visibly thins direct competition.

Against

Crowded category positionCrowding percentile: 78/100 in the current full-store snapshot.
Unresolved delivery planThe saved answer for Programming / technical work is “Not sure yet”.

The hybrid pitch is more distinct than a plain cozy farming game, but it sits between audiences with different expectations. The safest path is to prove one repeatable loop: deck battle choices should visibly improve the village, and village planning should change the next run.

Data basis

From 18,400 games we isolate 47 peers — and their outcomes split sharply.

Every number in this report traces back to this filtering chain. Figures on this page are fictional samples; the real report computes them live from your tags.

≈ 18,400Steam-reported tag matches
Match three or more selected tags · 1.1% kept
≈ 210Three-tag neighbors
Match all four tags · 22% kept
47Your peer pool1 in every 391 games on Steam
Released in the last 3 years · priced · complete data · 26% kept
12Kept as row-level comparables

The pool's typical outcome sits an order of magnitude below the comparables.

Peer-pool median revenue: ≈ $180K
Median of the 12 comparables: ≈ $1.6M
Top 5 share of pool revenue: ≈ 62%

Comparables are drawn from the winners — the gap between the two medians is the size of the survivorship bias.

Four in ten peers never reach $100K; three in ten clear $500K.

Under $100K40% · 19 games$100K-$500K28% · 13 games$500K-$2M21% · 10 gamesOver $2M11% · 5 games

Supply is accelerating year over year, yet successes keep appearing.

Gross over $500K (15 games)Other peersMost recent peer to clear $500K: about 14 months ago

Of the 15 games over $500K, 12 hold a rating of 80%+ and none has fewer than about 900 reviews — quality and visibility are both entry tickets.

Method (fictional sample): public Steam store and review data; revenue estimated as review-count × multiplier ranges; snapshot as of 2026-06. The real report computes these live from your tags and states the snapshot date.

Comparable Steam games

All four neighbors earn; the top two lift the range.

All four revenue ranges hang on the same $0-$4M scale; the dashed line marks the four-game median, about $1.6M.

Comparable game	Tags	Release timing	Review range	Price	Revenue context
Sproutbound Tactics	Cozy, Farming Sim, Card Battler, Village Builder	2024 launch, post-Next Fest bump	2,400-4,800 reviews · 86-91% positive	$14.99	$1.2M-$3.4M illustrative gross range
Hearthvale Harvest	Farming Sim, Deckbuilding, Relaxing, Roguelite	2023 launch, seasonal update cadence	900-1,800 reviews · 78-84% positive	$19.99	$700K-$2.1M illustrative gross range
Moonlit Rogue Acres	Roguelite, Farming, Town Builder, Procedural	2024 launch, discount-led review growth	1,600-3,200 reviews · 74-81% positive	$14.99	$900K-$2.8M illustrative gross range
Card & Cottage	Card Game, Cozy, Base Building, Strategy	2025 early access, slow update rhythm	420-950 reviews · 82-88% positive	$12.99	$350K-$900K illustrative gross range

These rows are fictional but intentionally specific. A real report would replace them with current public Steam evidence and explain why each game is or is not a useful comparison.

Player testimonials

Players like the loop, but late-game clarity is the visible gap.

This fictional section mirrors the paid report shape: code-counted themes, exact quotes, implications, reviewer playtime, and language mix.

4 fictional comparables · 80 fictional Steam-style reviews · pulled 2026-07

Late-game clarity5 complaints / 1 praise

Control feel1 complaint / 4 praise

First-hour loop0 complaints / 6 praise

The first runs are charming, but after a few nights I stopped knowing what mattered next.
Sproutbound Tactics · Complaint · 34.2h played · 2025-01 · 128 found helpful

Complaint to implication

Late-game clarity · 5 / 6

Keep the village upgrade promise visible after the first hour.

Reviewer playtime

Median reviewer playtime: 12.4h

Review language mix

english · 72
other languages · 8

Peer-pool market trend

The peer pool is warming, but the revenue midpoint is cooling.

This fictional trend section is scoped to the same peer pool, not the whole Steam store. It separates supply movement from estimated revenue movement before the income section.

Revenue peaks in 2023, then cools while annual releases keep rising.

Release count and estimated revenue

Release count uses the left bar track; estimated revenue uses the right line track.

2021 · 3 releases · $300,000 - $2,300,000
2022 · 4 releases · $450,000 - $3,000,000
2023 · 6 releases · $800,000 - $5,200,000
2024 · 7 releases · $500,000 - $3,800,000
2025 · 8 releases · $350,000 - $2,900,000

Price × revenue

Measured Steam list price and estimated revenue coexist in this pool; this is not a causal model.Estimated lifetime gross revenue · log scale

Your saved price band · $10-$19.99

$0-$9.99 · 2 games · $140,000
$10-$14.99 · 6 games · $800,000
$15-$19.99 · 5 games · $2,100,000
$20+ · 2 games · $3,800,000

Historical discount depth is outside the available data.

Rating-band revenue comparison

Three band medians only; no regression is run on this bounded pool.

Pool median · $1,600,000

<80% · 4 games · $180,000
80-89% · 6 games · $1,100,000
90%+ · 5 games · $2,800,000

First-month review dependence

Share of each comparable's public reviews posted in its first 30 days.

42%Middle 50% from 28% to 57% · 15 games

Lower quartile · 28%
Pool median · 42%
Upper quartile · 57%

The first-month share is exact only when bounded public review pagination covers the reported review history; unavailable large histories are excluded.

Top concentrationTop 5 take about 62% of illustrative pool revenue

Your price position$14.99 sits inside the main paid band

Gold marks the answer-relevant price area, not a good or bad outcome.

Full-store category map

The wider Steam map is crowded, but adjacent production tags look less contested.

The paid report reads a precomputed quarterly snapshot. Every value in this public example is fictional and does not represent the live Steam category map.

Fictional map snapshot · illustrative 2026-07

Part A · Your category

Your category in the map

Farming SimCrowded

Steam supply: 9,800
Opportunity rank: 68 / 120
Sample pool: 47

Map snapshot 2026-07 · Sample-pool snapshot 2026-07

Sample-pool releases by year

20 sampled releases · 2021–2024 · mapped-category sample pool

These fictional sample-pool releases are shown as a static illustration, not a live Steam trend.

Earlier sampled releases
Latest two years

Average estimated revenue per sampled game

4 release years · USD per sampled game · shared zero baseline to $1.4M

These fictional annual revenue ranges describe the illustration only; they do not establish a live Steam trend.

Estimated floor–ceiling
Center amount
Hollow point · under 3 sampled games

2021$120,000 – $420,000 · $210,000 · Under 3 sampled games
2022$180,000 – $720,000 · $360,000
2023$230,000 – $1,100,000 · $510,000
2024$290,000 – $1,400,000 · $640,000

Your full-store position

120 categories · Opportunity zone · Opportunity score ≥ 65 · Crowding score ≤ 66 · Crowded zone · Crowding score ≥ 75 · Opportunity score ≤ 65

Farming Sim sits in the crowded range in this snapshot.

Eligible categories
Your category
Classification thresholds

Crowding score: 78
Opportunity score: 45
Farming Sim: Crowded
Cozy Factory: Crowding score 28 · Opportunity score 96 · Blue-ocean
Cozy Automation: Crowding score 66 · Opportunity score 95 · Blue-ocean
Open-world Survival: Crowding score 96 · Opportunity score 20 · Crowded
Ember Homestead: Crowding score 95 · Opportunity score 65 · Crowded

Quarterly comparison

2026-07 snapshot · comparison starts with the next quarterly snapshot

This public example is based on one fictional snapshot. Quarterly comparison will light up after the next snapshot.

Part B · Full-store panorama

Crowded categories lead this fictional quarterly snapshot.

120 eligible categories8 low-sample categories excluded from rankings

Category mix and tag-level supply

120 eligible categories · 554,000 tag-level Steam supply · tag counts can overlap

Crowded categories are the largest group in this fictional eligible map: 48 categories, or 40%.

Within this fictional snapshot, crowded tags account for 58% of tag-level Steam supply; opportunity tags account for 10%.

Eligible category mix

Tag-level Steam supply

48 crowded categories · 40%
42 balanced categories · 35%
30 opportunity categories · 25%
Crowded tag-level supply · 320,000 games · 58%
Balanced tag-level supply · 180,000 games · 32%
Blue-ocean tag-level supply · 54,000 games · 10%

A game can carry multiple tags, so supply shares are tag-level counts.

Revenue distribution

120 valid revenue points / 120 eligible categories · USD estimated revenue per sampled game · logarithmic axis

In this fictional snapshot, estimated revenue per sampled game is $497,500 at the lower quartile, $865,000 at the median, and $1,232,500 at the upper quartile.

Eligible category
Your category
Lower quartile, median, and upper quartile

Lower quartile: $497,500
Median: $865,000
Upper quartile: $1,232,500

Revenue concentration

Top 20% of sampled games · share of estimated category revenue · 100 squares

In this fictional snapshot, the top 20% of sampled games hold 44% at the lower quartile, 61% at the median, and 76% at the upper quartile of estimated category revenue.

Median share captured by the top 20% of sampled games
Remaining median revenue share

Lower quartile: 44%
Median: 61%
Upper quartile: 76%

Share of estimated category revenue held by the top 20% of sampled games

Recent sample supply

120 eligible categories in the denominator · each category's latest observed year plus the preceding year · 5 highest and 5 lowest shown · 0–100%

In this fictional snapshot, the median recent-release share is 23%; the upper quartile is 25%.

Highest recent sample share

Open-world Survival43%
Farming Sim36%
Cozy Automation32%
Ember Homestead29%
Garden Craft28%

Lowest recent sample share

Cozy Factory9%
Calm Homestead11%
Crafted Retreat12%
Quiet Keeps13%
Woven Fields14%

Full-store median and upper quartile
Your category
Observed category ranking value

Median: 23%
Upper quartile: 25%
Farming Sim: 36%

For each category, sampled-release share uses its latest observed year and the preceding year

Quarterly category movement

2026-07 snapshot · comparison starts with the next quarterly snapshot

This public example is based on one fictional snapshot. Quarterly category change will light up after the next snapshot.

Gold is reserved for opportunity rows; crowded rows stay neutral so the report does not turn saturation into alarm color.

Review / revenue range

Most comparable totals land between $600K-$4.2M, with a median around $1.6M.

Break-even reference ≈ $120KComparable median ≈ $1.6MIllustrative revenue range · $0-$4.2M scale

Likely benchmark bandIf the pitch lands with players, about 1,200-8,000 Steam reviews

Illustrative gross range$600K-$4.2M illustrative gross range

Confidence levelMedium-low until prototype tags and capsule wording are tested

This example would treat review volume as a public demand signal, then map comparable rows into a cautious revenue band. The band is wide because public data cannot prove exact unit sales.

The break-even reference is fictional: about $120K for one full-time developer over two years, roughly 11,000 net sales at $14.99 after platform cut and refunds. The real report recalculates this with your cost assumptions.

Revenue range is an estimate, not a guarantee. It is shown as a band because public signals cannot prove exact sales.

Triggered evidence risks

Two risks cross the sample's evidence thresholds.

Crowded category position

Trigger

The matched category's crowding percentile meets the report threshold of 67/100.

Pool evidence

Crowding percentile: 78/100 in the current full-store snapshot.

Impact

A crowded position raises the visibility burden even when the comparable pool contains successful games.

Unresolved delivery plan

Trigger

The questionnaire marks Programming / technical work outside the creator's strongest saved area.

Pool evidence

The saved answer for Programming / technical work is “Not sure yet”.

Impact

An unresolved delivery area can absorb time or budget that the market comparison cannot price in.

Benchmarked open checks

Four checks to resolve before committing to production

Priority check
Public demo check
Your questionnaire does not record this plan, so the report marks it as an open check rather than assuming it is complete.
9/15 comparables have a public demo (60%).
Priority check
Pre-release runway check
Your questionnaire does not record this plan, so the report marks it as an open check rather than assuming it is complete.
Median first public pre-release lead time is 120 days across 15 comparables.
Priority check
Language-scope check
Your questionnaire does not record this plan, so the report marks it as an open check rather than assuming it is complete.
Median supported language count is 8 across 15 comparables.
Priority check
Launch-window check
Your questionnaire does not record this plan, so the report marks it as an open check rather than assuming it is complete.
Median first-month review share is 42%; the upper quartile is 57% across 15 comparables.

Method and limits

How these judgments are made, and what they cannot know.

Measured

Public Steam-facing facts such as tags, prices, release timing, review volume, and positive review range.

Estimated

Review and revenue ranges inferred from public signals, shown as bands rather than exact claims.

Interpreted

Market-risk judgment about genre saturation, scope pressure, positioning, and next steps.

What this report cannot know

Whether the finished game will feel good, look polished, or retain players.
Wishlist conversion, launch timing, featuring, or festival performance.
Whether streamers, curators, or social posts will pick up the game.
Refund behavior, long-term discounting, bundle exposure, and post-launch content cadence.
Exact final revenue, because refunds, discounts, bundles, regional pricing, and platform cuts vary.
Whether a publisher, platform partner, or press contact will like the pitch.

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